The U.S. Supreme Courts upcoming decision to reverse Roe v Wade (an early draft of which has been leaked) doesnt ban abortions; it leaves the issue to the states. As a result, it will put another large brick in the growing wall separating blue and red America.
The second American civil war is already occurring, but it is less of a war than a kind of benign separation analogous to unhappily married people who dont want to go through the trauma of a formal divorce.
One America is largely urban, racially and ethnically diverse, and young. The other is largely rural or exurban, white and older.
The split is accelerating. Red zip codes are getting redder and blue zip codes, bluer. Of the nations total 3,143 counties, the number of super landslide counties where a presidential candidate won at least 80% of the vote jumped from 6% in 2004 to 22% in 2020.
Surveys show Americans find it increasingly important to live around people who share their political values. Animosity toward those in the opposing party is higher than at any time in living memory. Forty-two per cent of registered voters believe Americans in the other party are downright evil.
Almost 40% would be upset at the prospect of their child marrying someone from the opposite party. Even before the 2020 election, when asked if violence would be justified if the other party won the election, 18.3% of Democrats and 13.8% of Republicans responded in the affirmative.
Increasingly, each America is running under different laws.
Red states are making it nearly impossible to get abortions but easier than ever to buy guns.
Theyre also suppressing votes. (In Florida and Texas, teams of election police have been created to crack down on the rare crime of voter fraud, another fallout from Trumps big lie.)
Theyre banning the teaching of Americas history of racism. Theyre requiring transgender students to use bathrooms and join sports teams that reflect their gender at birth.
Theyre making it harder to protest; more difficult to qualify for unemployment benefits or other forms of public assistance; and almost impossible to form labor unions.
And theyre passing bounty laws enforced not by governments, which can be sued in federal court, but by rewards to private citizens for filing lawsuits on issues ranging from classroom speech to abortions to vaccinations.
Blue states are moving in the opposite direction. Several, including Colorado and Vermont, are codifying a right to abortion. Some are helping cover abortion expenses for out-of-staters.
When Idaho proposed a ban on abortions that empowers relatives to sue anyone who helps terminate a pregnancy after six weeks, nearby Oregon approved $15m to help cover the abortion expenses of patients from other states.
Maryland and Washington have expanded access and legal protections to out-of-state abortion patients. One package of pending California bills would expand access to California abortions and protect abortion providers from out-of-state legal action.
After the governor of Texas ordered state agencies to investigate parents for child abuse if they provide certain medical treatments to their transgender children, California lawmakers proposed making the state a refuge for transgender youths and their families.
Another California proposal would thwart enforcement of out-of-state court judgments removing children from the custody of parents who get them gender-affirming health services.
California is also about to enforce a ban on ghost guns and assault weapons with a California version of Texas recent six-week ban on abortion, featuring $10,000 bounties to encourage lawsuits from private citizens against anyone who sells, distributes or manufactures those types of firearms.
Blue states are also coordinating more of their policies. During the pandemic, blue states joined together on policies that red states rejected such as purchasing agreements for personal protective equipment, strategies for reopening businesses as Covid subsided, even on travel from other states with high levels of Covid.
At one point, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut required travelers from states with high positivity rates Arkansas, Florida, North and South Carolina, Texas and Utah to quarantine for two weeks before entering.
But what will happen to the poor in red states, who are disproportionately people of color?
States rights was always a cover for segregation and harsh discrimination. The poor both white and people of color are already especially burdened by anti-abortion legislation because they cant afford travel to a blue state to get an abortion.
Theyre also hurt by the failure of red states to expand Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act; by red state de facto segregation in public schools; and by red state measures to suppress votes.
One answer is for Democratic administrations and congresses in Washington to prioritize the needs of the red state poor and make extra efforts to protect the civil and political rights of people of color in red states. The failure of the Senate to muster enough votes to pass the Freedom to Vote Act, let alone revive the Voting Rights Act, suggests how difficult this will be.
Blue states have a potential role here. They should spend additional resources on the needs of red state residents, such as Oregon is now doing for people from outside Oregon who seek abortions.
They should prohibit state funds from being spent in any state that bans abortions or discriminates on the basis of race, ethnicity, or gender. California already bars anyone on a state payroll (including yours truly, who teaches at UC Berkeley) from getting reimbursed for travel to states that discriminate against LGBTQ+ people.
Where will all this end? Not with two separate nations. What America is going through is analogous to Brexit a lumbering, mutual decision to go separate ways on most things but remain connected on a few big things (such as national defense, monetary policy and civil and political rights).
America will still be America. But it is fast becoming two versions of America. The open question is like the one faced by every couple that separates: how will the two find ways to be civil toward each other?