New IGS poll: CA Democrats ahead in races for some GOP-held House seats

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Democratic candidates in California are well positioned to capture at least some of the eight GOP-held seats considered to be in play in next month’s congressional elections, according to a new Berkeley IGS Poll of more than 5,000 likely voters.

According to the poll, the Democrats hold a significant lead over their Republican opponents in two of the districts, they appear to hold a small advantage in two others, while in three of the four other districts the races are statistical dead heats.

President Trump’s shadow looms large over voters in each district, and appears to be a reason why a number of these historically Republican-leaning districts are in play, according to the poll. This is because many voters consider their preferences for Congress to be importantly tied to their views about Trump, and in most of the districts significantly more likely voters disapprove than approve of the president’s performance.

Democratic candidates consistently lead among non-partisans, Latinos, younger voters and women; GOP candidates are winning the support of evangelical Christians and white non-Hispanics without a college degree.

View the full survey results on the Berkeley IGS Poll website